Whisper Number
An unofficial earnings expectation circulating in the market apart from the official consensus — even a result beating the consensus can see the price fall if it misses this hidden bar.
In plain terms
If the average of brokerage analysts' official estimates is the [consensus](consensus), the whisper number is the real, unspoken expectation circulating informally in the market beyond that official figure — "honestly, it'll come in around here."
It was originally a number big players and traders passed among themselves in a whisper, hence the name. These days it can also mean the crowd's expectation gathered in retail-investor communities or some specialized sites.
For example, if the official consensus is [earnings per share (EPS)](eps) of $1.00 but the market secretly expects "$1.10 will come" — that $1.10 is the whisper number.
What it tells you
It explains the confusing phenomenon of "results beat estimates, so why did the price fall?" If a company reports $1.05, that is an [earnings surprise](earnings-surprise) against the official consensus ($1.00), but it misses the market's real eye-level (a whisper number of $1.10), so the price falls.
In other words, the whisper number shows "the market's real expectation hidden beyond the official one." The price sometimes reacts to this hidden bar rather than the official number.
Formula
whisper number = an unofficial earnings expectation circulating in the market apart from the official consensus (no recognized source or set formula)
What high or low means
When reported results clear even the whisper number, the market cheers; but clearing the official consensus while missing the whisper number is taken as "below expectations" and can shake the price.
When the whisper number runs far above the official consensus, it can be read as a sign the market's expectations have run that hot — the bar to clear has invisibly risen.
A whisper number is an unofficial, rumor-like figure with no recognized source. Its value varies by who compiled it and how, and the basis is opaque, so it is hard to trust outright. It is safer to take it only as a mood of "there seems to be this expectation in the market."
Even for the same company, the whisper number comes out differently by source (site, community). It is not a single fixed number but closer to a bundle of unofficial guesses scattered across places.
A whisper number is not a value released by a recognized body. (※ Our screen shows confirmed results based on SEC filings; it does not gather and provide "future earnings prediction" data like consensus or whisper numbers — this term is background for understanding "why the price fell on a surprise" in earnings articles.)
The whisper number originated in 1990s America, when companies would quietly slip earnings hints to select analysts and those spread among big players in whispers. The unfairness of only the pre-informed gaining an edge became a problem.
Eventually the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) introduced Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) in 2000, banning companies from selectively leaking material information to specific people. After that, the whisper number shifted in character from "the whisper of the privileged" to "the crowd's unofficial expectation" gathered by retail-investor communities.
Metrics to read alongside
See it in real stocks
Search US stocks on Stocklore to see Whisper and other financial metrics alongside the sector average.
This explanation is for information and reference only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investment decisions and their consequences are your own.