Whisper Number
An unofficial earnings expectation floating around the market, separate from the official consensus — even if results beat consensus, a stock can fall when they miss this hidden bar.
Whisper number = an unofficial earnings expectation circulating in the market, separate from the official consensus (no authorized source, no set formula)
When reported results clear the whisper number too, the market cheers; but when they beat the official consensus yet fall short of the whisper number, they can be taken as "below expectations" and the stock may waver.
In plain terms
If the average of brokerage analysts' official forecasts is the consensus, the whisper number is the market's real, unspoken expectation — the "actually, it'll probably come in around here" figure that circulates unofficially, apart from that official number.
The name comes from the fact that it was originally a number passed around in whispers among big players and traders. These days it can also refer to a crowd expectation gathered in retail investor communities or on certain specialized sites.
For example, if the official consensus for earnings per share (EPS) is $1.00 but the market privately expects "it'll come in at $1.10" — that $1.10 is the whisper number.
What it tells you
It explains the puzzling situation of "earnings beat expectations, so why did the stock drop?" If a company reports $1.05, that's an earnings surprise against the official consensus of $1.00, but it falls short of the market's real bar (a whisper number of $1.10), and the stock can slide.
In other words, the whisper number shows "the market's real expectation hiding beyond the official one." Sometimes the stock reacts to this hidden bar rather than to the official figure.
Formula
Whisper number = an unofficial earnings expectation circulating in the market, separate from the official consensus (no authorized source, no set formula)
What high or low means
When reported results clear the whisper number too, the market cheers; but when they beat the official consensus yet fall short of the whisper number, they can be taken as "below expectations" and the stock may waver.
If the whisper number sits well above the official consensus, it can be read as a sign that market expectations have run that much hotter. The bar to clear has effectively risen out of sight.
A whisper number is an unofficial, rumor-based figure with no authorized source. Values differ depending on who compiled it and how, and the basis is opaque, so it's hard to take at face value. It's safer to treat it only as a sense of "word is the market expects something like this."
Even for the same company, the whisper number comes out differently depending on the source (site or community). It isn't one fixed number so much as a bundle of unofficial guesses scattered across various places.
A whisper number is not a value published by an authorized institution. (※ Our screens only show confirmed results based on SEC filings; we don't gather and provide "future earnings forecast" data such as consensus or whisper numbers that someone estimates — this term is background knowledge for understanding "why the stock fell despite a surprise" in earnings coverage.)
The whisper number originated in the United States in the 1990s, when companies quietly passed earnings hints to only some analysts, and those hints spread by word of mouth among large investors. The unfairness of only the pre-informed side gaining an advantage became a problem.
Eventually the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) introduced Regulation FD in 2000, prohibiting companies from selectively disclosing material information to particular people. After that, the whisper number changed in character from a "whisper among the privileged" to an "unofficial expectation of the crowd" gathered by individual investor communities.
Metrics to read alongside
In Stocklore
Stocklore does not cover Whisper. Instead, it shows reported results, the year-over-year change, and how the stock moved around each earnings date — all on one timeline.
This explanation is for information and reference only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investment decisions and their consequences are your own.