Consensus
The average of earnings and target estimates put out by analysts at multiple brokerages — the market's level of expectation gathered into a single number.
Consensus = the average (or median) of the estimates from the various analysts covering the company
If the consensus moves up over time (upward revisions), market expectations are growing; if it moves down (downward revisions), expectations are cooling.
In plain terms
A single company is analyzed by analysts at many brokerages. Each puts out a projection like "revenue and EPS this quarter should be about this much," and the average of those projections is the consensus.
Put simply, it's "the average bar the market collectively expects." Whether results clear that bar or fall short is what separates an earnings surprise from an earnings shock.
What it tells you
The consensus puts a number on "the expectations already baked into the price." Share prices generally reflect the consensus to some degree, so when results match it the price tends not to move much; it moves when results depart from it.
So when looking at results, reading them as "how did they compare with the consensus" rather than "were they good" is what makes the market's reaction understandable.
Formula
Consensus = the average (or median) of the estimates from the various analysts covering the company
What high or low means
If the consensus moves up over time (upward revisions), market expectations are growing; if it moves down (downward revisions), expectations are cooling. This "direction of the estimates" shows the mood even before earnings are released.
Even if results beat the consensus, you can't take it purely at face value if that consensus had already been lowered a great deal.
The consensus is an "average," so when analysts' forecasts diverge widely it is less representative. Knowing whether everyone sees it similarly or opinions are split (the dispersion) gives you a more accurate picture.
Analyst estimates are influenced by the guidance the company provides. If a company sets expectations low, the consensus comes down too, which can create a "bar that's easy to clear."
The consensus is an estimate of the future, so it can be off. Estimates are especially less reliable when industry conditions change rapidly or for businesses no one has seen before. (※ Our screens show confirmed results based on SEC filings only; we do not provide forward consensus estimates themselves — this term is background knowledge for reading earnings coverage.)
Metrics to read alongside
In Stocklore
Stocklore does not cover Consensus. Instead, it shows reported results, the year-over-year change, and how the stock moved around each earnings date — all on one timeline.
This explanation is for information and reference only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investment decisions and their consequences are your own.